[ Outline ] · Standard · Linear+ ARMAGEDDON!!!, are we all doooooooooommmeeddd????

[Narazbad]

so me and my buddy have been talking about the fact that they have discovered a tenth planet in orbit of the sun (at 9 billion miles i think its kinda unlikely that it is under the suns gravitational pull, but yeah...) and then i found a link. there is an asteroid that is comming within about 22,600 miles in the year 2029. the problem being, that it could hit up to three of what are called keyholes, which are gravitational pockets in the space surrounding earth. if it DOES hit one of these keyholes, it goes from a 1 in 15,000 chance to 1 in 10,000 chance of hitting earth in 9 years. freaky, huh?

sooooo..i know there are some smart people here, so i was wondering if anyone has anything to think about this?



p.s. anyone know that they found water on mars? a huge crater in the north pole contains some frozen water which might contain some bacterial life forms....cool, huh?




if anyone wants them, heres some links to the stuff.
Asteriod: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/07/26/...ain711607.shtml
Mars water: http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=17518

[Narazbad]

ok...sorry for posting this thread i guess.....

[Semantics_In_A_Hat]

ok...sorry for posting this thread i guess.....

I don't think you have anything to apologise for; as you already mentioned this folder is for "shooting the breeze," and what not. As for the scenario you describe being "Armageddon," depending on what a person's spiritual and/or religious views, or lack thereof, are that may represent more of a naturally occurring phenomenon as opposed to a "final battle between good and evil; light vs. dark, etc." scenario though this is debatable and may vary significantly depending on an individual's personal values and views.

While math was my Achilles' Heel in school I have come across one figure that estimates that you have the same chance of being in a car accident as you do of a meteorite colliding with the Earth and potentially wiping out most, if not all, life on the planet as we currently understand it - that chance being 1 in 20,000. Meteorites and other space "junk" collides with the Earth on a not infrequent basis. Many meteorites burn up in the outer layers of the Earth's atmosphere and pose little or no danger to most people although I suppose a direct hit from even a coin sized meteorite could seriously injure or kill a person. It's the "planet killer" sized meteorites that various scientists and other people are concerned about. To make you sleep even better at night here's another comforting thought: at present despite all the space observation centres and telescopes, we [the human species] tend to only observe a fraction of the space surrounding Earth (in the context of other solar systems, stars, galaxies, etc.) and that means that the possibility of a meteorite - "planet killer" sized or otherwise - blindsiding us and colliding with the Earth exists. Sounds depressing? From one perspective it may be but it is my opinion that if a person went through every moment of their life when awake thinking solely about what might harm and/or bring about their demise they might end up being paralysised into inaction out of the fear of bodily harm and death (which is not to say that some fear and caution may not have a time and place,).

Besides, there are many other things that could be judged to be similarly catastrophic for human civilisation as it exists today and they don't require the equivalent of millions of tons of TNT destructive power in the form of a meteorite to do it. (happy, happy, joy, joy! lol) I am not privy to various research projects and technology that might be derived from such research that may, or may not, currently exist around the world but I suspect that should a meteorite be deemed to be on a direct collision course with Earth then the leading economic and military powers of the world might attempt to coordinate efforts in an attempt to alter the course of a meteorite on a collision course with Earth - be it via strategically placed nuclear strikes with inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), high powered lasers, attempting to attach solar sails (large, thin metal parachute-like structures that are designed to pick up energy and radiation from the Sun and power propulsion via that energy,) to an incoming meteorite in an attempt to alter its course, etc.

All of the options mentioned above, and others beside, would involve many highly complex factors and calculations; even if the velocity of an incoming meteorite were to be accurately calculated (bear in mind that it may increase and/or decrease as it enters the gravitational fields of other heavenly bodies which would be determined by said heavenly bodies total mass and the gravitational forces they themselves may be exerting on other objects in space which in turn may project their own gravitational forces back, etc. - the Sun, outer lying planets, other meteorites and asteroids, even stars and planets outside of our solar system that may cross its path, etc. - there also exists other factors. For example, actually being able to successfully target and then successfully intercept a target such as a meteorite moving at incredibly fast speeds presents a challenge to interceptor missile technology; if the ICBM option is utilised they would have to be launched at a time where the meteorite is within range of the ICBMs's strike range *and* still be far enough away that the resulting explosion and presumed aftermath of debris and energy were not so close as to still seriously endanger Earth. There is also the possibility that even with a successful interception strike the meteorite may break into pieces and that some of these pieces may still be large enough to cause serious, if not massive, damage to the Earth and/or localised regions where the sheared pieces of a meteorite may fall. Calculating the trajectory, velocity, etc. of one incoming target can be difficult enough, suddenly having an "X" amount of new smaller targets appear at a closer distance may present an even greater challenge in terms of determining the relevant factors mentioned above.

Best regards,
SIAH